Mesoscale Aspects of Winter Weather Forecasting:
Polar Lows - Ungava Bay, Northern Canada 01-03 December 2000

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This case begins while starting a shift at 0300 UTC on 01 Dec 2000 in the Arctic Forecasting Centre in Edmonton, Canada. Familiarize yourself with the setting for this case by reviewing the Case Profile.

Location of Interest

Hudson and Ungava Bay Region, Northern Canada

Map of Hudson Bay Region, Northeastern Canada

Case Time Frame
0000 UTC 01 Dec 2000-0000 UTC 03 Dec 2000
Phenomena of Interest
Polar Lows
Forecasting Challenges
  • Recognize the synoptic scale precursors of polar lows
  • Recognize the low-level surface features that are conducive to the development of polar lows
  • Recognize the development of a polar low from observations. Identify polar lows using satellite imagery
  • Understand the limitations of model initialization and output for polar low forecasting
  • Apply understanding of polar low steering mechanisms to a tracking forecast




Surface Analysis

CMC Surface Analysis for 01 December 2000

It is 0300 UTC 01 Dec 2000. 0000 UTC data are available, and the new prog set has started to arrive. You are familiarizing yourself with the synoptic situation over northeastern Canada. There are only a few 0000 UTC surface observations (manned and automatic) as the smaller sites closed down for the evening at 2300 UTC.

At the surface, a low remains quasi-stationary in Baffin Bay. The low-level flow over much of northern Canada from Hudson Bay eastwards is westerly to northwesterly around this low. Surface temperatures in the source region of this flow, the Arctic Islands and across Keewatin and into northwestern Hudson Bay, are very cold, in the range of -30°C.

Click the image to view a large-format .pdf version of the CMC Surface Analysis.


500-hPa Heights and Temps


This embedded Flash object shows the GEM Regional 500 hPa temperature,
height, and vorticity over the Hudson Bay region at
the 00 hour forecast valid 01 December 2000.

The 500-hPa 00-hr prog shows a low over Foxe Basin with a trough extending southwestward through western Hudson Bay. Temperatures in the trough are -39°C or colder. A well defined vorticity center is situated south of Southampton Island. These features have been moving eastward during the last 12 hours, and this motion is expected to continue. A second trough extends from the Foxe Basin low southeastwards over Baffin Island and into the Labrador Sea.

Use the check box selections to view the various fields from the GEM Regional 00-hr forecast. Or, click here to view a large-format .pdf version of the four-panel GEM Regional Charts for 0000 UTC.


Ice Analysis Chart

Thumbnail image of Canadian Ice Service Ice Analysis Chart for 01 Decmebr 2000 in the Hudson Bay region

It is early December and you know that there will still be open water in many parts of the North. The current ice analysis from the Canadian Ice Service is hanging on the wall. It shows that southern and southeastern Hudson Bay still have open waters. Open water is also found in Ungava Bay, eastern Hudson Strait, and over most of the Labrador Sea.

Click the image to view the full-size ice analysis for the Hudson Bay region. For detailed information on how to interpret the ice charts, please see the Canadian Ice Service website.
(http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp.cfm?ID=163&LnId=4&Lang=eng)


NOAA-14 IR

NOAA-14 channel 13  imagery  of the Hudson Bay area  at 20:50 UTC on 30 November 2000
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As it is after 0000 UTC, there won’t be any POES imagery over this area until around 0800 UTC. However, you have one recent picture from 2050 UTC 30 Nov of a POES NOAA-14 IR. It shows a band of cirrus and altostratus aligned with the upper trough through Hudson Bay, and the head of a comma cloud associated with the vorticity center over Southampton Island. In some locations, surface wind directions can be inferred through the low-level streamers that have formed with the passage of cold air over open water or leads. One such example in the image is the westerly winds over western Hudson Strait.

For more information on interpreting multispectral satellite imagery, see Feature Identification Exercises: Clouds, Snow, and Ice Using MODIS. (http://meted.ucar.edu/npoess/modis_exercises)


Proceed to the Case Challenge to learn more about the case through a series of forecast questions.


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