This case begins while starting a shift at 0300 UTC on 01
Dec 2000 in the Arctic Forecasting Centre in Edmonton, Canada.
Familiarize yourself with the setting for this case by reviewing
the Case Profile.
Location
of Interest
Hudson and Ungava Bay Region, Northern
Canada
Case
Time Frame
0000 UTC 01 Dec 2000-0000 UTC 03 Dec 2000
Phenomena
of Interest
Polar Lows
Forecasting
Challenges
Recognize the synoptic scale precursors of polar
lows
Recognize the low-level surface features that
are conducive to the development of polar lows
Recognize the development of a polar low from
observations. Identify polar lows using satellite
imagery
Understand the limitations of model initialization
and output for polar low forecasting
Apply understanding of polar low steering mechanisms
to a tracking forecast
Surface Analysis
It is 0300 UTC 01 Dec 2000. 0000 UTC data are available,
and the new prog set has started to arrive. You are familiarizing
yourself with the synoptic situation over northeastern Canada.
There are only a few 0000 UTC surface observations (manned
and automatic) as the smaller sites closed down for the evening
at 2300 UTC.
At the surface, a low remains quasi-stationary in Baffin
Bay. The low-level flow over much of northern Canada from
Hudson Bay eastwards is westerly to northwesterly around
this low. Surface temperatures in the source region of this
flow, the Arctic Islands and across Keewatin and into northwestern
Hudson Bay, are very cold, in the range of -30°C.
Click the image to view a large-format .pdf version of the
CMC Surface Analysis.
500-hPa Heights and Temps
The 500-hPa 00-hr prog shows
a low over Foxe Basin with a trough extending southwestward
through western Hudson Bay. Temperatures in the trough are -39°C
or colder. A well defined vorticity center is situated south
of Southampton Island. These features have been moving eastward
during the last 12 hours, and this motion is expected to
continue. A second trough extends from the Foxe Basin low
southeastwards over Baffin Island and into the Labrador Sea.
Use the check box selections to view the various fields
from the GEM Regional 00-hr forecast.
Or, click
here to view a large-format .pdf version of the four-panel
GEM Regional Charts for 0000 UTC.
Ice Analysis Chart
It is early December and you know that there will still
be open water in many parts of the North. The current ice
analysis from the Canadian Ice Service is hanging on the
wall. It shows that southern and southeastern Hudson Bay
still have open waters. Open water is also found in Ungava
Bay, eastern Hudson Strait, and over most of the Labrador
Sea.
Click the image to view the full-size ice analysis for the
Hudson Bay region. For detailed information on how to interpret
the ice charts, please see the Canadian
Ice Service website.
(http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp.cfm?ID=163&LnId=4&Lang=eng)
NOAA-14 IR
no
place names view
place names
As it is after 0000 UTC, there won’t be any POES imagery
over this area until around 0800 UTC. However, you have one
recent picture from 2050 UTC 30 Nov of a POES NOAA-14 IR.
It shows a band of cirrus and altostratus aligned with the
upper trough through Hudson Bay, and the head of a comma
cloud associated with the vorticity center over Southampton
Island. In some locations, surface wind directions can be
inferred through the low-level streamers that have formed
with the passage of cold air over open water or leads. One
such example in the image is the westerly winds over western
Hudson Strait.