Will a polar low develop? If so, where and when?

Challenge question 5 - Is a polar low likely to develop? If so, where and when?

We have now looked at the weather situation and how it may evolve through the day. Your job as forecaster is now to assess how likely a polar low is to form. If you think it is likely you must also make a judgement on the approximate position and time.

In this question you will decide which factors are the most important, and then use these to make your forecast.

Don't forget you may refer to any of the reference articles by clicking on the book icon at the side of the screen.

Answer the question below, taking into account all the information you have collected so far. Then click on the arrow through the quiz to identify the factors which will help you produce a forecast.

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In your opinion, do you believe that a polar low is likely to occur somewhere in the region during the forecast period?

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Good decision! A number of the pre-cursor conditions and trigger mechanisms are present. Can you define which of these are important, and say where and when it will occur? Move on to the next page...

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Move on to the next page, where we will review the factors observed so far.

Which of the observed and forecast features do you believe will be most important in forecasting when and where a polar low may occur?

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This cold pool meets the criteria for polar low formation, but it is not associated with any other dynamic features as it moves.

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The link between surface and upper air dynamic processes gives a strong indication of likely activity.

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This system is dissipating under a non-developmental area of the wide upper trough - there is no dynamic ascent aloft to develop it further.

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This cold pool forms as a result of the continued easterly flow from Scandinavia, and is forecast to coincide with the trough developments.

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The gradient in theta-w is due to the warm front at the leading edge of a polar maritime system - it marks the southern boundary of the true polar air in our region of interest.