Synoptic situation
The story begins... it is shortly after 00Z on 5th February 2001
You will be forecasting for the area shown in the map below, which covers the Norwegian coast, the Norwegian Sea and the northern North Sea. This case study covers events from this time up to 36 hours ahead.
Your first task is to familiarise yourself with the weather situation for the area, based on actual data for the past day, and NWP information from the 00Z model run. As the case progresses you will need to use this information and new data as the time progresses.
The chance of a polar low forming depends on a number of factors. Before we look at the day's events in more detail, first consider the following aspects:-
- Location
- Time of year
- Sea ice extent
- Synoptic situation
A map and some quick-look images are shown below to get you started. When you have looked through this data, click the arrow to go to more data on the next page.
Please look up the specially written reference material if you need some more information. Click on the book symbol to access this.
00 UTC on the 5th
The forecast area for this case study is the Norwegian Sea and northern North Sea, as shown in the box. This map also shows the locations of Upper Air Reporting Stations referred to in the texts.
A map of the extent of sea ice cover and sea surface temperatures in the forecast area.
IR Meteosat image for 0030Z over the Norwegian Sea area.
Met Office surface analysis chart for 00Z on 5th February.
